Today we will be looking at effective FG% and how this stat will dictate the direction of our bet for the Purdue / Wisconsin game. Effective FG% measures field goal percentage adjusting for made 3-point field goals. This means 3-point field goals are 1.5 times more valuable than made 2-point field goals. This gives us a true measure of how effective each offense truly is.
I ran a statistical analysis and compared the effective FG% of Purdue when playing in conference road games – since they will be playing in Madison tonight. In the viz below I utilized effective FG% for the x-axis & 1st H point spread as the y-axis (negative means Purdue was winning at half).
As you can see from the viz above we found that 1st half spread & effective FG% are HEAVILY NEGATIVELY CORRELATED with a .63 r squared score. This means that when Purdue has a low effective FG%, they are more likely to not cover the 1st half spread. So the big takeaway from this is if we can predict what games Purdue will have a low effective field goal %, the more likely they will not cover the 1st half spread & we can profit.
The next viz takes a look at the effective FG% for all Purdue games this season.
I utilized a dark black circle to indicate road conference games. As you can see 6 of 8 road conference games fall below the average line. This means that Purdue is more likely to have a lower effective field goal % in conference road games. And from what we discovered above – lower effective field goal % leads to less chance for Purdue to cover the 1st half line. Purdue plays at Wisconsin tonight, so this game fits this criteria.
The next viz shows the point spread after the 1st half for all Purdue conference road games.
As you can see from the viz – Purdue STINKS in the 1st half of conference road games. If we use tonight’s 1st half line as a baseline (Purdue +2) & use this number to track past performance, we see that Purdue has only covered +2 1st half in one game. Now, let’s take a look at Wisconsin’s 1st half results in home conference games just to make sure we are doing our due diligence.
Well look at that – the exact inverse results. Wisconsin is AWESOME in home conference games, covering -2 1st half in 5 of 6 games.
In gambling we are only looking for a slight advantage & this statistical analysis shows that we need to trust the math and rock with Wisconsin -2 1st half.
Official Pick: Wisconsin -2 1st Half
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